Kentucky Derby betting

The Kentucky Derby is the first leg of the American Triple Crown and is held over 1m2f at Churchill Downs in May. Kentucky Derby betting features the top colts in America and is widely known as “The Run for the Roses”, a reference to the garland of roses draped over the winning horse.

The Triple Crown moves on to the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes. American Pharoah ended a 37-year wait for a Triple Crown winner in 2015, with Justify becoming the 13th horse to complete the treble in 2018.

Kentucky Derby betting tips

After training two Triple Crown winners in American Pharoah and Justify, whatever Bob Baffert saddles is likely to feature prominently in the Kentucky Derby betting. Justify (2018) was his fifth Kentucky Derby winner. He had also been successful with Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) and War Emblem (2002), prior to American Pharoah’s famous victory.

Justify’s victory was also notable for the fact that he hadn’t raced as a two-year-old. No horse that hadn’t raced as a juvenile had won the Kentucky Derby since Apollo in 1882. Justify became the first Triple Crown winner to retire undefeated since Seattle Slew in 1977.

European runners have struggled to make an impression in the Kentucky Derby. Dr Devious finished seventh in 1992 for Peter Chapple-Hyam and won the Epsom Derby a month later.

Aidan O’Brien had high hopes for Mendelssohn in 2018 after he had won by more than 18 lengths at Meydan. He was bumped early in the Kentucky Derby, couldn’t handle the sloppy conditions and trailed in a remote last.

Winning Colors became only the third filly to win the Kentucky Derby when scoring for D. Wayne Lukas in 1988. She joined Regret (1915) and Genuine Risk (1980) in the history books.

A low to middle draw is generally considered ideal when assessing your Kentucky Derby tips. Horses drawn high must show some early speed to hold a position. Barrier 17 is regarded as the draw to avoid for your Kentucky Derby bets. Solomini (2018) became the 40th consecutive loser since stall 17 was first used in 1930.

Kentucky Derby betting trends

Favourites didn’t win the Kentucky Derby between 1980 and 1999, but have a much better recent record. California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming and Justify were all winning favourites in consecutive seasons from 2014 to 2018.

There are occasional upsets and big-priced winners in the Kentucky Derby odds. Giacomo (2005) and Mine That Bird (2009) were both 50/1 outsiders when winning this race. Mine That Bird was trained by D. Wayne Lukas and, although placed in the Preakness and the Belmont, he never won another race.

Kentucky Derby ante-post betting pointers

One of the key trial races for your Kentucky Derby tips is the Florida Derby. Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016) and Always Dreaming (2017) all won the Florida Derby before winning at Churchill Downs.

The Santa Anita Derby has also produced several winners of this race, including California Chrome and Justify. Other useful trial races include the Arkansas Derby and the Wood Memorial.

American Pharoah won the Arkansas Derby on his way to stardom in 2015. Fusaichi Pegasus won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in 2000, before his Kentucky Derby victory.

There’s only one logical route for Kentucky Derby winners and that is the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. The Preakness is over virtually the same distance as the Kentucky Derby and takes place at Pimlico two weeks later. The Belmont Stakes completes the Triple Crown over 1m4f, two to three weeks after the Preakness.

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Kentucky Derby history and memorable winners

The Kentucky Derby was inspired by the English Derby at Epsom and was originally run over 1m4f in 1875. The inaugural Kentucky Derby was won by Aristides, who was beaten into second in the Belmont.

The distance of the race was shortened to 1m2f in 1896. Interest grew in the pursuit of a Derby winner that could go on to win the Preakness and the Belmont. The first to achieve the treble was Sir Barton in 1919. The phrase “Triple Crown” was coined after Gallant Fox won all three races in 1930.

War Admiral won the Triple Crown in 1937 and was famously matched with Seabiscuit the following year in the Pimlico Special. War Admiral was beaten by Seabiscuit in a track record time.

Northern Dancer won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, setting a race record time at Churchill Downs. He was beaten into third in the Belmont, but became one of the most influential stallions in history.

Northern Dancer’s record time stood until 1973 when Secretariat claimed a spectacular Triple Crown.

The chestnut known as “Big Red” was the first horse to break the two-minute barrier in the race, recording faster fractions for each quarter. Secretariat’s most remarkable victory came in the Belmont where he won by an incredible 31 lengths.

If Secretariat was about pure brilliance, then the Triple Crown success of Affirmed in 1978 was all about sheer determination.

He was locked in three battles with Alydar, a horse he had clashed with as a juvenile. Affirmed beat his old rival in the Kentucky Derby by a length and a half, in the Preakness by a neck and in the Belmont by a nose.

Kentucky Derby winners Spectacular Bid (1979), Alysheba (1987), Smarty Jones (2004), Big Brown (2008) and California Chrome (2012) all failed to land the elusive Triple Crown. The next horse to do so was American Pharoah in 2015, a popular Kentucky Derby tip.

He had to be hard ridden by Victor Espinoza to beat Firing Line and Dortmund. American Pharoah was a different horse in the Preakness, winning easily by seven lengths. He finally ended the drought for Triple Crown winners with a five-and-a-half-length victory in the Belmont Stakes.

Kentucky Derby betting 2021

Bob Baffert’s Improbable moved to the head of the Kentucky Derby betting when winning the Los Alamitos Futurity by five lengths. He took over the stall left vacant by Justify at Baffert’s yard and races in the same colours.

Baffert could also run Roadster and Game Winner, first and second in the Santa Anita Derby. Game Winner had won the Del Mar Futurity with Roadster back in third last season. He also won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile here in November. Both colts delighted their trainer and remain firmly on course for Churchill Downs.

Tacitus won the Wood Memorial for Bill Mott, coming through a rough race to win by a length and a quarter. Vekoma is another name to look out for in the Kentucky Derby odds. He was an impressive three-and-a-half-length winner of the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland for George Weaver.

The Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park was won by Maximum Security by the same distance. He had won on his debut by a wide margin at the same track for Jason Servis. Omaha Beach took five races to get off the mark, but lowered the colours of Game Winner in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

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